Has the Republic reached breaking point? This is the questioned to be answered by the Nationalist planners. The answer is almost. The Republic has no IRPs and simply replaces ¼ from losses. There are a very few new units being raised from reinforcements. It is said that an army never learns from its own mistakes only those of its enemies and so the case here. The Zaragoza front is static and the Republic have not repeated the Nationalist mistake in front of Albacete and thinned this inactive front too much. Indeed they recognise that this is where the main battle will be fought and spies report the vast build-up of troops and material on the Nationalist side,
So here they are strong and could thin further without immediate danger.
However it is another matter in Murcia and here the answer posed by the Nationalists is Yes, The Republic is approaching a critical mass. This is considered reached when the Nationalists can make multiple attacks with second line units at little or no ASP expenditure, The first signs of this are beginning to show against the Anarchists and the PA defenders who are not making up losses and falling back to maintain density. Even here the line is being attacked at multiple places every turn some attacks just requiring one or two ASPs.
Still however the Republic are managing to maintain sufficient density of Defensive factors on the main axis of Nationalist attack requiring them to mass front line troops artillery and full supply to make progress.
The Nationalists are getting massive quantities of foreign aid and factory production now outstrips the republic at a factor of 2:1. Many are being stockpiled in Zaragoza limited as much by rail capacity getting them to the front than quantity available and the Albacete front is being supplied with sufficient to maintain the thrust to Valencia.
The Republic are now losing around 4-6 divisions a turn and clearly cannot trade space for much longer before they are pushed into the sea.
So the answer is yes and no to the original question; yes on the Albacete front; no on the Barcelona front.
The problem for the Nationalists is that Barcelona is where the final die will be cast both figuratively and indeed, it seems, literally as well.
Air Activity Pinpoint accuracy precision bombing (3X 6!) results in rail breaks @m 3532, 3633.
Attack 2: (Valencia/ Barcelona Rail line) and 3304 (Terul)
Attack1: 3810 rough (E of Hellin) Supplied 6-8 lt inf XX 150, Unsupplied 3-5 inf XX 74, 1-6 inf and Supplied 5-6 inf XX 84, unsupplied 5-6 infs 54, 105 Attack 2-3-5* inf XX 36 @ 6:1 (-3) = DR. Advance 84, 74 XXs, 20
Attack 2: 3711 (NE Hellin) Unsupplied4-8 XX cav 2, 1-6 art 13L, 3-4-5*inf XX 34, and U2 1-6 mg O, 5-6 inf XX 53 Attack 1-5 inf Muer (An) @ 6:1 (-4) = DR (eliminate , no retreat path) Advance 34 XX.
Attack 3: 3802 clear (E of Hellin) Unsupplied 6-6 inf XX 102, 4-6 inf XXS 15, 107, 1-2-8 art 50, 1-2-6 art 42, 2-6 infs 2Mel (Col) and 6-6 inf XX 52, 5-6 inf XX 62, 2-1-8 lt tk 2, 2-3-6 art 62, 2-6 infs 6Xau, 8Rif (Col) and 5-6 inf XX 61, 3-2-6 inf 2LE, 2-1-8 cav 2O (Col) Attack 2-3-5* inf XX 9 @ 8:1 (-2) = Dh. Advance 14, 107 XXs, 42 art.
Attack 4; 1006 clear/Dot/Fort. (Gijon) Supplied 5-8 inf XX LA (CTV), 4-6 inf XXS FA, FV (Mxd), 1-8 mg ard (CTV), 1-8 art Ter, 3-1-2 sge art Man (CTV) and Supplied 4-6 inf XX FN (Mxd), 5-6 inf XX 71, 4-6 inf XX 60, 2-8 mtns Pir, Guard4-6 art 1RG, 1=2=6 art 49, 2-6 art 1P and 1-6 eng ZC, 2-6 eng AM, 6-6 infs XX 1,152 4-6 art 2RG, 2-1-8 arts E, O and 4-6 inf XX 85, 1-6 art 12L, 1-6 art2, 1-6 engs ZME, ZMO, 1-8 eng GG and SM-81 GS, 2 NGS from BBTF-1 , CATF Attack 3-4-4* inf XXs, 2,5, 2-3-4 inf XX 7, 1-2-4 infs 13,14, DI, 1-6 art s16, AD, 1pt Garrison @ 4:1 (-2+1) = HX. Lose engs ZME, ZMO, ZC, AM, mtns Pir, Guard. Advance; Man Ter, Ard (CTV) FA, FV (Mxd) . fort destroyed, Garrison dispersed. Factory Captured 2 ART RPs captured but sabotage and the heavy fighting has caused considerable damage and the Factory is out of commission till at least August 1939. 0.5 RE Rail capacity captured. NT-4is Scuttled to prevent capture. NT-3 tries to put to sea but is sunk by the blockading capital ships of the Nationalist Navy. ( N+8 VPs)
Weather; Plunging temperatures and snow descends on Northern Spain. D=S. E=M, A= R, M= C
Supply:. Forward pursuers in the Pemebetica out of supply as are some Nationalist in North Aragon valley. The Republicans on the Madrid/Valencia rail line are back in supply
Movement: 1 Res pt spent to temporarily increase Rail Cap to 24 REs
Replacements ; 1-6 eng replaced. 2B3 mxd, CR.32bis (CTV) repaired
VPs : Goberneto none collapse (R+10 VPs) None Surrender( R+10 VPs)
French border; Open
Supply: Almeria defenders U4 isolated dice for elimination 1-2-5 Jou perishes.
The extreme tip of the Nationalist push towards Valencia is back in supply.
Replacements; 0.5 SRPs recovered. I-15/t25s replaced.
Air Activity: Naval patrol SB-2, R-Z, GE 23 contacts the submarine group at Almeria but fails to hit any targets.
Attacks: none the Republic have any effective reserves as all troops are needed to man the line.