The Nationalist VP situation is poor. They cannot hope to win on points unless they are able to force the surrender of the Loyalists. The conditions for surrender are any two of;
- Capture Madrid
- Capture all major city Hexes except one
- Force the collapse of all gobernetos
- Capture the loyalist government or force it to move overseas.
Because the government can be moved at will for very little penalty (half strength same Republican turn i.e. effectively few or no attacks in the turn it moves) and it can do so any number times Condition 4 is an inconsequential condition simply encouraging the republicans to keep it on shore.
|From JUL I 1937||58||118|
|TOTAL JAN I 1938||152||352|
The Nationalists will capture Madrid. This leaves conditions 2 or 3 as the Strategic aim for 1938/9.
If Valencia is captured in an attempt to fulfil condition 2 this will still require one hex of Barcelona to be captured. Therefore Barcelona is needed to fulfil option 2.
Barcelona is also key to fulfilling option 3. Catalonia will collapse with the capture of one Barcelona hex and may go earlier if Nationalist forces are within 3 hexes of a cut off Barcelona. On collapse the capture of the remaining hex of the city is almost by default because Barcelona is usually declared an “open city”.
The Nationalists therefore will aim to capture Barcelona thus forcing surrender by fulfilling conditions 1 and 2.
However simply forcing a surrender will not be enough without reducing the loss of VPs from the continuing existence of all 4 gobernetos. The number of REs of all the Republican forces will barely cover the loss of points from all gobernetos remaining in existence for all the game. The worry is that there will not be enough time/resources to eliminate all gobernetos and Barcelona. Therefore the Nationalists Strategy will be to establish a major offensive towards Catalonia with a secondary force tasked with eliminating Santander/ Asturias. Euzkadia is considered the strongest Goberneto and will only be attacked if time permits.
The Nationalists do not intend to repeat the mistake of allowing Madrid to last as long as Seville and forces will mass for a direct assault as soon as possible prior to redeployment. In the short term the strong forces moving north from the area of Cuenca en route to Madrid will climate any targets of opportunity from the remnants of the Republic front line fleeing East.
Weather; Land; North (D)= Winter. South (D) = Mud. Seas; Med = Rough. Atlantic = Rough
Supply: 2 Res of “Cuenca pocket” feed off GSPs. Rep 1-2-6* inf in the mtns Nth of Madrid succumbs to U4 isolation
Reinforcements; 85th inf XX equipped on arrival to 4-6 inf XX 85.
Replacements: 1-6 sec 18GC replaced. CR.32 repaired.
Other than the lt div and Cav div assemblies all Nationalist conversions/upgrades now completed and all Form options completed
Air Activity: Sortie 1; Mxd flies short range Airdrop to “Cuenca pocket” 3 GSPs survive drop.
Sortie 2; 2X CR.32, CR.32bis (CTV), Mxd A (range 10), and extended Mxd B, Mxd A (range 6) fly airfield bombing mission to 4212 (Lorca). Intercepted by I-16/t5. 1x CR.32 and CR.32bis (CTV) jettisons bombs and engages I-16/t5. Both are aborted. Mission force avoids AA and Hits airfield.
Attack 1; 2810 clear/fort. All adjacent unsupplied over river attack 2-3-5 inf XX (U4 isolated) @ 5:1 (-3) = DR. Eliminated no retreat path. 2-3-5* inf XX Cac advances.
Attack 2; Supplied 6-6inf XX 108, 4-6 art 1RG, 2-6 infs Tdi, 2Mel (Col), unsupplied 4-6 infs 102,151 and 2-3-6 art 62, 1-6 art 4L , Supplied 5-6 infs 53, 84, 6-6 infs 62, 4-3-6 art Leg (CTV), 3-2-6 inf 2LE, 2-1-8cav 2O (Col) and U2 isolated 5-6 inf XX11, 6-6 inf F (Mxd), U3 isolated) 2-3-6 art 61, 2-10 AA 88 (KL), 1-8 mb B (CTV),2-1-8 lt tk Bab (CTV) 1-10 lt tk Dro (KL), attack 6-6 inf XX 45 (Int), 3-68 inf XX @ 5:1 (-2) = HX. 15 (Int) Cadre eliminated as no retreat. Lose 2LE, 2O (Col). Advance 88 (KL) Dro (KL), 52, 53 inf XX, 62 art.
Mech Move;. 1-8 mech B, 1-8 lt tk LE evacuate Cuenca.
VPs : Lack of Goberneto collapse (+15 VPs)
French border; Closed
Supply; Isolated U4 Republican 14, 37 and 65 inf XXs perish (Madrid area), Nationalist 23,74 inf XXs perish (Zaragoza).
Reinforcements; Inf XX 71 equipped on arrival as 2-3-8*
Replacements; 1/2 SRPs recovered. 1,5 SRP (Int) recovered.
Air Activity: R-5, SB-2 escorted by I-16/t5 attempt to bomb 2235 (Logro). Intercepted by ME 109B which aborts I-16/t5. Bombs drop wide.
Attack 1: 3008 rough (West of Aranjuez)Retreating stacks all adjacent Republicans eliminate 2-8 mtn Guard @ 9:1. (This was a sacrificial unit which eliminated 2 Republican XXs by isolating them last move).
Attack 2: Supplied 2-1-8 cavs 1,3, 2-6 nvl 151, 2-6 inf 152c, 2-6 art 2P, 1-6 art 7L, unsupplied 5-6 inf 1XX 15 (int) 3-6 inf* 2 and 4-6 inf XX 34, 2-1-8 tk3, 1-2-6 art 3 and 2-3-5* inf XX 44 (Cat) and and 2-3-5* inf XX 31 over river (Cat) and and 2-3-5* inf XX 33 over river (Cat) and over river 4-7 mtn XX 42 (Cat) , 1-5 inf 6 (Cat), 1-2-5 inf 2,3 (Cat), 1-0-R art 3 (Cat), 1-8 cav Buxo (Cat) attack 3-4-5*inf XX 72, 1pt Garrison @ 7:1 (-1) = DE. Advance 33XX (Cat). Garrison dispersed.