The Allies had 2 lucky breaks in this test: a great evacuation from Greece, and that it took the Axis 14 turns and 5 attacks to finally capture Tobruch. The Allied strategy to weather the Axis assault in their fort lines in front of El Alamein worked well as the Axis was only able to reduce the 1st fort line (out of 5) before the Axis combat strength available on the front eroded to less 60% of the combat strength of the Allies on the front.
The Axis decision to start retreating on Jun II 42 may have been influenced by knowing when Torch would occur. I believe that historically the Allies could have agreed to invade North Africa by late June 1942 in Washington, not late July 1942, and may try a variable Torch date from Oct I thru Nov I. Any pre-Torch Axis build up near the Tunisian border should also affect the Vichy French reaction. Both the Axis (by 54 pts) and the Allies (by 96 pts) moved much more combat strength into Tunisia than historically (according to the OB’s), but the Axis could never break away from the huge Allied pursuing force to concentrate against the Allies already in Algeria. Both sides also ended Mar II 43 with large amounts of armor RPs (German 20, British 42, US 23), so I may switch to SF’s replacement costs so that every c/m unit uses some armor RPs. I may also use the British 2nd Armor Division OB option to counter the annoying way the regular Allied OB destroys the ability of the Allies to form armor divisions in the critical first half of 1942.
In terms of connecting to GE43 this game ended almost exactly where GE43 starts in Tunisia on Apr I 43. For the Axis player in GE staying in North Africa by 1943 is a lost cause for many reasons: Allied strength, good weather, Allied air superiority, and supply lines easily cut by DZs. The Axis holding out in Tunisia, which can be leapfrogged, does not delay the Allies; it’s the arrival schedule of LCs in early 1943 that delays the Allies. As an Axis player in GE I might start holding units back from North Africa as early as the Italian 185th Para Division, a potential loyal fascist unit.