Initial Phase

A 6 is rolled for the weather, turning both D & E zones to quagmires of mud and the Med into rough.  The Dodecanese go U-2 black, while Kerkyra and the Kalpaki pocket remain U-1 red.  All British units in Greece go U-1 black since there is no Allied standard supply terminal in Greece (Athenai is a restricted full supply source for Greek units only, so the British must set up their own terminal or face supply questions.)  Italian M/C units arrive for service in Albania at Bari, while another F and B show up at Brindisi.  A/S is produced at Trieste and an Ital Mtn RP at Taranto.  A fort is begun at Koritsa to protect the airfield, although with mud and the new WW rule, it will be Jan I 41 before the fort is finished.

Movement Phase

Naval transport across the Adriatic kicks off the turn.  The 1 B M/C III is transported to Porto Edda, the 2 B to Valona and the 4 B to Durazzo.  Interference has no effect (8, 8 & 5 rolled respectively).  The Ital Mtn RP is also sent to Port Edda (5).  Because of insufficient port capacity and no need to risk unloading a/s at a beach, the a/s in Trieste remains on the quays.  The M/C regiments at Durazzo and Valona are able to admin forward a single add’l hex.  Along the front, the Julia pulls back a hex now that the Greeks have engaged her.  Minor tweaking along the whole front creates a line from 4215 to 4216, then southwest to the wooded rough at 4719 and then west to the coast at 4720 (Egouminitsa.)  Along the main front, 5 or 6 pt DS stacks are the rule, though at 4215 the 51st XX still stands alone in a 3 pt stack, while in the far south 4719 and 4720 are 4 and 3 pts respectively.  The Italian high command hopes for mud, though Mussolini questions why his troops are not advancing faster (Note:  The Axis backed out of one hex, but did take a new one and that one was a good defensive position.  The line is fairly straight actually.)  Since there is no chance to launch an attack anywhere, the Italian AF chooses to tip its hand and run missions in the mov’t phase.  Five strategic terror bombing missions are launched against Athenai since it has no fighter cover and only slight flak (3 pts).  All bombers participate with the following results: SM81, flak 7, bombing 5, hit; Z.1007b, 6, 4 miss; Z.506B, 7, 4 miss; SM.79-I, 9, 1 miss; Mxd B, flak 4 for an R.

Combat Phase

No DAS is flown.  No combats occur.

Exploitation Phase

The three m/c units each move south as far as their mps will take them, except the southern most one at Porto Edda, which moves one hex west to provide non-arty support to the 26 C Arty III.

End of turn

The Axis collects 1 VP for terror bombing Athenai, plus 8 more for Greek hexes, for a total of 17:0.

Assessment

The Axis seems to be doing fairly well in Greece.  Weather should prevent any attacks in the eastern part of our line, while in the south, it will depend upon whether mud remains in zone E.  There’s a 50/50 chance of mud or clear.  The Greeks could launch an attack to help relieve the Kalpaki pocket in clear, but I doubt they could do so in mud.  Even in clear, they’ll be facing a –2 mod at 4719 thanks to wooded rough, and this hex won’t allow a reconnection with the pocket.  The rough at 4618 provides a more direct route to the pocket, but it will face a –3 mod regardless of the weather (either –1 for rough plus –2 for mud or –2 for AECD.)  The Axis will have air superiority over the whole front, which is a big help in keeping the line defensible against more numerous and stronger Greek units.  I’m not sure which I’d prefer, clear weather with the risk of a Greek counterattack but which might allow a chance to clear the pocket having gone U-2, or mud, which would better protect my line but prevent any assault on the pocket.  I suppose the more conservative mud would be better, but we’ll have to see how the weather plays out.