Month: October 2020 (Page 1 of 3)

I added an exclamation mark to the number of Soviet attacks last report because it appeared to be the highest number of combats they have initiated in a turn so far in this game. I have since checked and discovered this to be the case. It occurred to me that it may be interesting to do some more detailed analysis on the number of attacks per side/ kill ratio i.e. losses/Attacks etc.

I have, therefore reviewed the reports and added the data to my Losses Spreadsheet.
Unfortunately, I did not keep record the number of attacks for either side till Sept I ’41 then just the Axis till Nov I ’41 when both are recorded. So this analysis omits the early Axis glory days. Nevertheless, the data proves an interesting read.

It may be supposed that both sides use the same CRT the loss ratio would be similar, but there are several factors other than just the CRT to consider.

• The appetite of the two sides to take attacker losses.
• The die roll modifiers available
• The unit density
• Weather effects
• Air Power

Let us examine each in a bit more detail:

Firstly the “appetite” to take attacker losses. In part the comments under this section may reflect my personal playing style rather than a principle that can be applied to the sides per sae. It seems clear to me that the Axis player should be far more reluctant to take losses. True he can recover losses more efficiently via special replacements (so a loss of 20 points is effectively a 16 point loss for the Soviets but only a 15 point loss for the Germans). The Germans in particular rely on fewer, higher quality, units which are thus indivisible and unless very careful the German attacker can end up taking losses over those essential. In comparison the Soviet player has far more smaller units and can usually find the exact “change” needed. Both the above points are marginal compared to the real determining factor which is the vast disparity of manpower reserves available to the two sides. The Soviets in effect have units to burn if they can survive the initial onslaught and a “War of Attrition” plays right into their hands. The Axis must in my view therefore only attack at odds where an EX or HX is possible only to secure critical terrain, communication centres or tactical advantage. As a result of this their attacks will on average be at a higher odds/DRM than the Soviets and likely therefore to have a greater kill rate. It should also be noted that I have not consistently reported isolated losses from non-combat. Where noted therefore I have included these as losses inflicted as combat losses for consistency. This will also be a marginal effect.

Secondly Die roll modifiers. The Die roll modifiers available to the two sides are also not entirely symmetrical. The Soviet armour starts with a number of disadvantages, especially the mobility limitations which restrict its attacking usefulness particularly in the early months. It also takes some time for the Soviet Forts to be liberally available. Consequently, the Axis enjoy a considerable DRM advantage particularly early in the game in the summer months. Whereas a DRM roughly approximates to a column shift there are some anomalies such as the 1.5/1 column and the infamous 5:1 with -2 plus modifiers.

Thirdly unit density plays a part in understanding the statistics. In the early years when the Axis are ascendant unit density is generally a lot lower so they will make far more attacks on smaller value stacks compared to the Soviets who mid game are generally attacking larger stacks. (To be clear though the losses reported are the replacement costs of the units lost thus an 8-6 infantry division is reported as a 5 point loss when cadred) Thus from a losses inflicted point of view this method of calculation will tend to reduce the losses over and above the CRT result for both attacking and defending units of both sides although because they have more cadres will tend to massage the German losses in particular down a bit).

The weather effects work indirectly by effecting the DRM for the Soviets in the first winter and thereafter the loss of armour effects which generally favours the Soviets. This shows in the data because the number of attacks follows a seasonal rhythm more closely than the loss data. For example, the Axis attack more times each turn than the Soviets from the Start until Oct ‘42 when the Strategic Initiative changes except for the First Winter where the Soviets are the dominant attacking force.

Air Power. Air power can add attack factors and increase the kill rate and both sides have periods of aerial ascendancy but I have not been recording odds achieved so cannot analyse the relative combat effectiveness per factor only the relative lethality per attack so not much more can be added under this heading.

SE AAR 2: Combat Frequency Analysis

What do the figures show? Here are the highlights from the statistically invalid set of 1 game:

• Highest number of attacks both sides in one turn = 33 (Jun II ’42)
• Highest number of attacks in one turn Axis = 30 (Aug I ’41)
• Highest Number of attacks in one turn Soviet =24 (Jun II ’43
• Lowest number of attacks in one turn Axis = 1 (April II ’43 attacking Voronezh)
• Lowest number of Soviet attacks in one turn = 3 (April II ’42, Jun II ’42 and Aug I ’42)
• Average number of attacks per turn Axis = 9 (from Nov I ’41)
• Average number of attacks per turn Soviet = 10 (from Nov I ’41)
• Average number of attacks both sides = 18 (from Nov I ’41)
• Point at which Soviet Attack numbers exceed German attacks Jan II 42 till Mar II 42 then Oct II 42 Onwards.
• Total number of attacks. Axis = 345 (since Nov I ’41 incl)
• Total number of attacks Soviet = 403 (since Nov I ’41 incl)
• Total Attacker Losses – Axis = 308 (From Oct ’41)
• Total Attacker Losses – Soviets = 556 (From Oct ’41)
• Total losses inflicted by Axis on Soviets = 2610 (From Oct I ’41)
• Total losses inflicted by Soviets on Axis = 2069 (From Oct I ’41)
• Highest Attacker single turn loss Axis = 62 (Feb II ’43) (Most from two massive exchanges)
• Highest Attacker single turn loss Soviets = 45 (Dec I ’41)
• Highest single turn loss Inflicted Axis on Soviets = 197 (Jun II ‘41)
• Highest single turn Loss Inflicted Soviets on Axis = 137 (Jun II ’43)
• Average attacker loss per attack both sides = 10
• Average attacker loss per attack Axis = 9 (From Nov I ’41)
• Average attacker loss per attack Soviets = 12.6 (From Nov I ’41)
• Best Kill Ratio (losses inflicted/Number of attacks) Axis = 29 (Mar I ’43)
• Best Kill Ratio (losses inflicted/Number of attacks) Soviets = 14.8 (Dec I ’41)
• Gross Kill Ratio Axis = 12.8 (all losses per turn/number of combats from Nov I ’41)
• Average Kill Ratio Soviets = 6.2 (all losses per turn/number of combats Nov I ’41)
• Net Kill Ratio (deducting attacker losses) Axis = 9.06 (From Nov I ’41)
• Net Kill Ratio (deducting attacker losses) Soviets = 5.05 (From Nov I ’41)

What surprised me about this data was the high rate of Axis attacker losses I had expected it to be a lot lower, however 48 of these were lost in the initial turn and a further 97 in the winter of 41/42 when the Axis were desperately attempting to deliver a killing blow to the Soviets. What was expected was that each Axis attack is more lethal than its Soviet counterpart. (and German units will be recovering more from Special Replacements.)

The lack of data for the early months is frustrating but empirically one may assume it will considerably increase the German Kill Ratio. I will let the reader pick out any other highlights of interest, suffice to say I have been crunching these numbers for 3 nights now and hopefully they will stand up to scrutiny but please report and anomalies or obvious errors and so I can correct them.

Narrative

The Soviet snowball is gaining momentum. As the Axis lose troops and thin the line to fill the gaps more opportunities are opened up for Soviet attacks. The German reactive groups which did so much damage a month ago and have caused the Soviets to adopt a steady approach are now forced to dissipate to cover the line. True, they can mount hit and run attacks against the attackers but as they spread out they loose mass and the ability to concentrate. The Soviets by contrast have more and more targets to attack and do so this turn with a total of 24 attacks – the most ever mounted. The kill rate however is disappointing and not the highest but far exceeds the ability of the Axis to replace the loses further weakening their overall position. Is it a matter of time before the damn breaks or will Axis counter attacks, where mounted, blunt the Soviet spearheads before they are overwhelmed? The Soviets avoid a direct tank on tank conflict because they are weaker overall in armour but teamed with artillery divisions these units pack a powerful punch and a strong defence against any riposte.

Turn Report

Partisans: The Axis step up security patrols and only 2 rail hits are made this month.

Finnish front. The Soviets continue to reduce the Murmansk perimeter and eliminate a 6-8 mtn division but only achieve a retreat further west near Petsamo. In the far West reinforcement yomp up the trail laden with supplies to fight back against the recent Axis push out of Kautokeino.

Leningrad Front/ Narva/Pskov Sector; The two sectors merge as the German line retreats south out of Estonia into northern Latvia. 6 attacks completely annihilate two surrounded pockets outside Tallinn and West of Pskov and the Axis line is punctuated in 3 places. The presence of strong Axis armour formations and high ZOC/Terrain costs limit the advance which continues to be slow and steady on this front.

Veliki Luki Sector: In a repeat of last turns assault a direct attack south is mounted by three tank armies against a stack with a 13-10 pz as its primary defender. This time instead of a retreat a DH results in the cadering of the Panzer. A surrounded 6-6 inf xx also receives a DH and is annihilated.

The Red Army overruns Army Group North

Kalinin Sector: The infantry pincer attack started last turn eliminates the link stranding a large stack at Vishniy Volochek but an Exchange result weakens the Soviets who decide against an advance due to two 16-10 panzers in the area and content themselves with isolating the town and it’s defenders by ZOC.

Moscow Front: Their attempt to advance and surround the remaining Axis toehold at West Moscow thwarted the Soviets decide on a direct assault. The attack is poorly co-ordinated and launched before three Guards Rocket divisions have time to fully register their tubes. Furthermore, alerted by a defector the Axis take cover and weather a desultory bombardment leaving them free to emerge from the cellars and easily ward off the Guards infantry/Tank/Engineer attack which follows (NE).

South of Moscow: The line between Moscow and Orel is now mostly being waged west of the river as the defenders are winkled out of their forts one by one. Three attacks in this sector cause more divisions to be cadred. The resulting advances are cautious because earlier Axis counter-attacks have taught the Russians the hard way not to plunge headlong into a single hex cul-de-sac but rather to wait for a two hex front or corner attack to advance the line. They are content for the Axis to feed fodder into the line for elimination until such opportunities arise.

Outside Orel an assault on the fortified ring fails with no loss or advance.

At Kursk however in a replica of the above attack an infantry division is cadred and a fort eliminated (but the victorious 12-9-8 Guards tank after eliminating the fort pulls back in exploitation.)

Along the Voronezh/Kursk road three attacks fragment the line inflicting more damage but careful retreats and some back up units provide the attackers with no exploitation opportunities worth taking.

The Center cannot hold

Voronezh Sector: The infantry/artillery drive continues south of the city and while two separate bridgeheads over the river are successfully merged the direct attack SW fails and no significant advance is made.

Nevertheless the attacks north of the City are placing the defenders in imminent danger of being surrounded and isolated.

Stalingrad Front; Due to the continued expansion of the Moscow Front administrative and command control of all action originating south of the line Kursk/Voronezh is transferred to the Stalingrad Front commander for future reports.

Air Combat: A carpet bombing mission is launched west of Moscow by the short and medium assault bombers based in the former capital. 2 more hits render the Moscow Rail line unusable and surrounding hexes are blanketed by 15x 1 pt Harassment hits designed to slow or prevent significant reinforcement into the sector.

As before the Long Range bomber force is less successful scoring only two rail hits in the Minsk/Poland/Lithuania regions from 10 single bomber missions.

Combat Report:

Diced Combats = 24!

Losses

Soviets = 19, Air = 2.

Axis:
Forts = 7,
German Isolated= 19,
German un-isolated = 69,
Pos AA = 1,
Air = 1;
Italian = 2.
Eastern Troops = 1.

Loss Ratio July II ’43 Axis/Sov = 91/78 = 1.16

R&R (Rescue and Riposte) In the Arctic the Axis launch an operation that eliminates a large section of the Soviet front line.

In the south of Estonia the trapped troops are rescued by counter attack although for one infantry division this is it likely to prove a brief respite.

Between Orel and Kursk the tank on tank battle continues as two more tank corps and two motorised corps are obliterated.

Turn Report

Weather: Automatically clear

Finland and Army of Norway: A light division arrives at Alta and marches to join the fight at Kautokeino attacking with the Mountain division and mountain artillery already in situ they launch a devastating attack across 2/3’s of the sector eliminating in one sweep 64 miles of Russian front Line troops for the very economical cost of 1 Res pt.

Elsewhere all hold in place with one Res Pt being shipped along the coast from Alta to Kirkenes.

Axis counterattacks in the central Arctic Theater

AGN; Narva/Pskov Sector: The units in the Forested and Swampy terrain screening Tallinn hold fast and await their inevitable fate, they are ordered to “hold in place until relief arrives” which they correctly deduce is code for “no rescue is planned”.

In the south of the former Baltic state a double attack on the forces which penetrated the MLR at Pskov are is executed and the trapped forces rescued however the front line established in Exploitation excludes the infantry division in the forests adjacent to the lake as to include it would extend the line into a cul-de-sac and risk further encirclement. At least it has been brought back into supply. (The Axis would have liked to include it in the attack which would have allowed an advance south but to do so would have sullied the AECA and risked an exchange and there are not enough Armour assets to have raised the odds to avoid this.)

As a general principle the Axis are averse to use their Air Force as flying attack artillery except to top up a small shortfall or for critical attacks preferring instead to use the Airforce for DAS.

The force levels in this sector are now such that the Soviets can pick on most hexes at will and eliminate them, The Axis see this as a delaying force giving time for the Dvina River line to be fortified where they will make their stand.

Veliki Luki Sectors: No possibility for counter attacks here the Axis contemplate falling back to the Veliki Luki fortified hub but decide to stand fast gaining some reinforcements from troops moving West from the Kalinin Sector and maintaining a continuous front while the line fall back on the Dvina.

Kalinin Sector- The Axis have no significant reserves here and the terrain is too difficult for a “Hit and Return” attack from Kalinin so the pincer move on Vishniy Volochek is unchecked (pardon the pun) and the forested crossroads reluctantly evacuated. The focus of so much attention over the last two years, battered by assaults and key to German operations to the East the pressure now is too great so weakened are the defenders. In reality, although of significance in terms of morale the practical importance of this junction has waned to insignificance now the front has shrunk back. It is true that the rail line is needed in winter but in the summer months supplies can arrive from the rails further south. Not admitted publicly OKW is practicing Wargames which allow for a complete withdrawal from this sector dependant on the fate of Kalinin and/or their tenuous grip on the capital. The loss of this junction may, at worst, hasten this decision.

AGC; North Moscow Sector; The Soviets retreated, the breach is sealed and engineers move in to re-fortify.

South Moscow Sector: Defences are prepared against the continuing assaults.

Orel Sector: The isolated Tank corps/Brigade stack is surrounded and annihilated to the last man.

On the southern corner of the pocket closest to Kursk a bold advance by a tank XXX and two motorised XXXs is repaid by annihilation.

Panzers move back to replace the concrete forts previously lost with steel.

Southern Sector; Infantry and support units are reinforced by armour and mech units in an attempt to check any move south while battered infantry forces north of Voronezh abandon forts to shrink the perimeter and maintain contact on their left flank.

AGS: Troops continue to be bled off the Don defensive line but this particular cup is now running dry. The Soviet units West of the Don are for the moment unassailable so are simply contained.

Air combat: Most aircraft on Das a smattering of intercepts result in losses of 1xJU88A, 2x, JU87D for a P39D.

Combat Report:

Attacks: Auto =2, Diced = 6

Losses: Soviet Isolated = 14, Un-isolated = 45, air = 1

Axis; Air = 3:

Narrative

R&R – (Rescue and re grouping). The swift armoured response of the German forces requires a turn of consolidation in the south. 4 Tank corps are isolated west of the wall of steel erected between Kursk and Orel and a breakthrough is needed to bring them into supply and safety. 3 are rescued but one cannot reach home so marches NW to interdict the Bryansk-Orel rail line.

Whilst the dash and élan of the southern breakout requires a turn of consolidation this is not so in the north where the slow, steady push on the German forces in Estonia finally cracks the line and the resulting exploitations isolate 5 divisions and 4 REs of cadres and support troops.

Turn Report

Partisans: With many districts completely covered by security assets only 3 rail breaks are inflicted this turn; none of which are in critical areas.

Finnish front. The Soviets continue to reduce the Murmansk perimeter, but their efforts are repulse by fully supplied defenders.

Further west a Luftwaffe penal battalion is retreated into Petsamo.

Leningrad Front:  Narva Sector; The attackers concentrate their attacks into two main drives. The smaller of the two including just one Guards Mech Corps with massed infantry and artillery drives directly West smashing a hodge podge defence of cadres and an 88 flack unit and hooks north to the outskirts of Tallinn trapping the Security division stationed there and the two divisions and engineers in the forested and swamp terrain near the coast. Any move east by these troops is barred by a screen of Guards infantry and Naval Gunfire support.

The second group strikes at the 5-6 infantry division and supports occupying Tartu. Despite two Tk xxxs and a Mech xxx in the van a spirited defence is mounted by the greatly outnumbered rear-guard of flack, stug and a local ethnic contingent which allows the infantry division to fall back intact and block any significant exploitation by the Soviets. (DH)

Soviet Forces liberate Estonia

Pskov Sector; The unprotected gap courtesy of local Fighters out of Pskov driving off a Harassment mission allow an infantry force to advance 16 miles and a lone Cavalry division to penetrate 30 miles into the rear of the MLR. In exploitation a 4-8 mech cadre joins the Cavalry unit to prevent overrun and the advancing Mech/Tanks from Tartu move towards these units and trap and isolate a further 2 divisions and a 5-10 SS mech unit adjacent to Lake Peipus. A massed assault just south of there cadres a 14-10 pz.

Veliki Luki Sector: A direct assault south is mounted by two tank armies against a stack with a 12-10 pz as its primary defender. The German units retreat without loss but are now holding only 30 miles from the vital communication line serving the East/West MLR between Veliki LUki and Kalinin.

Kalinin Sector: An infantry pincer attack is developed by a new thrust close to the small lakes in the northern Valdai Eastwards threatening to meet the continuing drive West from north of Kalinin. The noose is tightening on the Axis hold of the forested junction just north of Vishniy Volochek a junction they have held against the best the Russians could throw against them all through the long cold winters of 41 and 42 and the summer before it.

Moscow Front: North Sector: A rescue attack is mounted against the 12-10 pz trapping the two Tanks corps west of it. To aid the attack the entire Moscow air defence is mobilised adding a full 35 points to the attack. The result only retreats the defenders, but the Tank corps and artillery xx is recued.

South of Moscow: A German fort which occupies the oxbow system between Moscow and Orel and is located East of the river is assaulted, ironically with some soviets attacking back East over the bend from their positions west of it. The hex is cleared as is a second on the direct route to Bryansk but the going is a slow grind with dire consequences for any single hex advances.

Outside Orel a lone 0-1-10 Flack unit passing supplies to a trapped 7-6 in an outlying fort is over-run and the 7-6 subsequently eliminated. Another assault against the fortified redoubt dispatches a Panzer cadre, light inf xx cadre and a 2-8 Stug.

The Soviets rescue 9th Army and keep pushing West

Between Kursk and Orel infantry and artillery rush forward to replace the tanks and mech in the front line. The latter concentrate and hit a 14-10 pz reducing it to cadre. The three isolated tank corps join the fight to reach safety and advance into supply. A lone Tk xxx with a 3-2-8 Guards accompaniment out of reach of rescue and running low on fuel moves northwest to try to interfere with German forces moving from the north.

Along the Voronezh/Kursk road three attacks penetrate the line inflicting losses and retreats.

Voronezh Sector: The infantry/artillery drive continues south of the city and a second strong force advances West of the Don. 2 forts are eliminated.

Stalingrad Front; The soviets note the continual drain of units north but take no action. They are spread thinly in a defensive posture from the Sea of Azov to the end of the Major section of the Don with no offensive capacity.

Air Combat: The massive Moscow air operation is unopposed. The Soviets attempt to support the isolated Tank/Brigade formation outside Orel but two of the three Pe2FTs are driven off by interceptors although the VVS gains comfort by eliminating a Me410A’

Short and medium range Assault craft gain 2 rail hits in the Veliki Luki area and raid an Airbase Aborting a Ju87 on the ground.

The Long Range bomber force is less successful scoring only one rail hit in the Minsk area out of 10 missions there and against Polish and Lithuanian lines.

Combat Report

Over-runs = 1, Auto Attacks = 1, Diced Combats = 19

Losses:
Soviets = 21, Air = 2.

Axis:
Forts = 5,
German Isolated= 7,
German un-isolated = 90,
Air = 3;
Eastern Troops = 1.

Loss Ratio July I ’43 Axis/Sov = 98/83 = 1.18

COUNTTER ATTACK! The German forces do what they know best utilising their mobility and concentrated firing power they carry out series of counterattacks to check the recent Soviet advances. 

Turn Report

Weather: Automatically clear

Finland and Army of Norway: The supported 3-8 mountain regiment which is west of the river adjacent to Murmansk decides it is too exposed and moves into the city contracting the perimeter to only three occupied hexes.

At Alta a fresh Mountain division broken down to supported regiments arrives with Res Points and moves towards the western end of the front line closest to the Swedish border.

AGN; Narva Sector: Units full back to Forested and Swampy terrain screening Tallinn and widening the perimeter as the right-hand flank moves to defend the river line at Tartu. The gap between these two forces is plugged by a 1010 mech xx

Pskov/Veliki Luki Sectors: Two Panzer divisions are transferred south to loop around the Soviet breakthrough by Strategic railing via Kharkov. Meanwhile weakened by weeks of battering and winkled out of their forts only terrain is now available to augment the defences’ Das Reich & Viking Corps therefore stay in the line adding the panzers to the defending forces.

Kalinin Sector- A defensive posture is still taken here.

SE AAR Axis Jul I ’43

AGC; North Moscow Sector; Just north of the city the unassailable Soviet drive is cut off at the base in a brilliant move which catches the Soviets completely by surprise, The Moscow city panzer defence force strikes directly north into the flanks of the Soviet advance while simultaneously from the west strong Panzer forces assembled from the Kalinin defence force and aided by part of the Moscow reserves attack the north flank.

Both attacks are completely successful smashing the Soviet Guards infantry defenders completely The panzers advance trapping the two Soviet tank Corps, a 14-6 artillery division and their NKVD political advisors.

South Moscow Sector: As expected the Axis forces crush the southern penetration using the balance of the Central Reserves. A 16-10 xx pz advances and stays in the line.

Orel Sector: A 13-10 pz XX loops around the westernmost units of the advancing Soviet units and Totenkopf Corp concentrates and strikes south from Oral. In the resulting combat a 12 8 Guards mech division is completely eliminated and the panzers advance south towards kursk. In this manoeuvre they are joined by the only German Mech unit south of the A/B weather line which has moved from Voronezh. In Exploitation a solid line of Mech and Panzer units isolate four Soviet tank corps west of the newly formed defensive line.

Counterstroke II: The Ais cuts off the tip of the Soviet assault

Southern Sector; Infantry and support units flee south trying to re-form the line together with units peeling off from the Voronezh defences. These units join the Security divisions along the Voronezh/Kursk rail line unsure at this stage where the Soviet intensions ultimately lie.

AGS: Only the Rumanian Tank division with an Italian Mot brigade and cadre are left as a mobile reserve in the south so the Axis units can do no more than contain the Soviet bridgehead over the upper Don.

Air Combat: A black day for the Luftwaffe; –  Most missions are DAS but Soviet air activity is intense and effective and in the worst week of exchanges in the war so far the Luftwaffe lose 6 air units for a single kill of a Soviet fighter. In other news west of Pskov a Harassment mission is Returned despite Fw escort which leaves a gap in the lines.

Combat Report

Attacks = 4

Losses: Soviets = 62. Air = 1
Axis:  German Air = 6

Loss Ratio for Jun II ’43 (omitted from last report) Axis/Soviet = 137/102 = 1.34

The Axis forces encouraged by the lack of Soviet progress and empowered by the cessation of the interminable rains put their defensive plan into action. The various Panzer Corps each formed around a SS Panzer or Mech Division move to engage the enemy. The tactics are to hit the infantry/artillery stacks which have penetrated the fortified line. The mobile units move in for the kill. The primary targets are stacks where the Soviets have been rash enough to advance through ZOCs. Here odds as low as 3:1 can annihilate a stack or at least reduce it to a pitiful few cadres. But these odds are safe anywhere there is no enemy AT/ACED capability and so elsewhere they attack the Soviet line hoping for a high roll and half or full elimination.

The aim is not to take back territory or expose the Panzers to attack themselves. Thus in exploration the plan is to move back into reserve or fortified city redoubts.

Weather: The skies finally clear across the whole front signalling the end of one of the wettest winters on record.

Finland and Army of Norway: More units arrive by sea transport strengthening the right wing in the far north of Finland. The left flank falls back to the coast; the link with Murmansk broken. With two transports bringing 10Res of supplies each month to the city all but one regiment of the city defence perimeter is fully supplied.

Double attacks at Pskov and Velikije Luki

AGN; Narva Sector: A low grade infantry division reinforces the centre but the left wing battered by land sea and air, its fort eliminated, falls back along the coast to the forested hex east of Tallinn. The rest of the line holds in swamp and the one remaining fort. A 6-6xx in reserve bars the one-hex wide clear route south.

Pskov Sector: Das Reich Corp attacks a stack which has penetrated the line. A 6 at 3:1(+3) eliminates 2 Guards xxs and a Rocket xx. With nowhere to run they are completely eliminated.

Veliki Luki Sector: Viking Corp attacks the right shoulder of the penetration south of Leningrad and reduces to cadres 3 guards inf xxs and a 9-6 art xx.

Due to the thinness of the infantry line in the above sectors the corps do not retreat back into reserve but fill the line in concentrations sufficient, they calculate, to avoid a viable Soviet attack.

Kalinin Sector- A defensive posture is taken here.

Axis counterattacks south of Moscow

AGC: North Moscow Sector: The presence of a NKVD unit dissuades the Germans from attacking as the inexorable creep of the Soviet blunt force attacks roll on.

South Moscow Sector: The Moscow Defence forces merge now that the threat is clear and form up under Liebenstandart – they attack the soviet bridgehead west of the river sending it reeling back east. 2 Guards infantry and a Guards artillery are cadred in the retreat.  However elsewhere the Germans are forced to evacuate a salient in the line and abandon a fort there.

Orel Sector; Totenkoph Corps detaches a panzer division to Voronezh to herp with the recapture of the SE approaches to the city. The rest of the corps attacks an infantry/artillery stack approaching Orel but the enemy pull back from the assault. Without a kill the tankers return to their fortified positions around the City.

The forts which linked Orel to Voronezh are starting to be eroded and infantry reinforcements arrive to bolster the line with DAS concentrates further enhancing the defence.

Voronezh Sector: The arrival of the 13-10 pz xx from Orel allows a 4:1(+1) attack to take back the ground in front of the city.  Fortunately, there remains a concentration of Siege Artillery in the area which is retained and fires over the river from the north further aiding the attack. A DH forces loss and retreat on the defenders and the ground is retaken.

Its job done the 13-10 returns to Orel.

AGS; South of Voronezh the East bank is fully evacuated. To aid the defence the ground immediately south of the city is evacuated which exposes the road running into the city from the Southwest for the Soviets to regain at no cost which some at High Command think is an error.

West of the Don Engineers move to complete the fortified line and Rumanian artillery transfers in from further south to bolster the defenders.

Air War: Apart from a couple of raids on rail lines south of Voronezh all air power is directed towards bolstering the defence via DAS missions with some brave Luftwaffe units entering the ”No Fly Zone” West of Moscow. Soviet fighters engage where they can and a series of low level engagements swirl along the front.

Despite the mighty FW109’s full spirited escorting skills when the contrails clear the count is 4 Soviet fights for a Ju87D and a pair of JU88As a rough exchange the Luftwaffe can ill afford.

Combat Report

Attacks: = 5

Losses:
Axis; German Air = 3
Soviet; = 71,  Air = 3.

Disappointed with results last month and with the timetable slipping before the offensive has barely begun the Soviets decide to focus their attacks more. Rather than build on last turns breaches in the Axis fortified line and in accordance with their plan they seek to enlarge the breaches to expose the Axis to armoured attack when their second echelon passes through when the forts are cleared.

Turn Report

Partisan Attacks: 4 hits are inflicted on communication lines.

Finnish front. In association with the increased tempo on the main front the Soviets open their operation to retake Murmansk. Two attacks are launched against the perimeter eliminating N6 and forcing the cadre into the city. An adjacent attack stalls but to the west, over the river, an attack northwards severs the link between the garrison and Norway thus Isolating Murmansk.

XXXVI. Mountain Corps surrounded at Murmansk – Soviets march into Norway!

Leningrad Front:  Narva Sector. – The Soviets shift their attack to the rail line held by 2x 6-6 Fortified inf XXs. They launch a co-ordinated assault using all three Service arms. A ground assault utilising a combined arms force of artillery, Guards infantry and armour, an air attack of Assault bombers and finally a shore bombardment by the Soviet Fleet making its first appearance since being trapped at Narva by German torpedo boats and mines. One division is cadred and both retreat exposing the fort to capture but holding the road and preventing any exploitation by the advancing Reds.

Pskov sector; The German line running north/south is again assaulted in two places but German solidarity is upheld and all defenders retreat maintaining contact with their neighbours. Two more forts however are surrendered.

Veliki Luki Sector; The Soviets seek to expand the breach held open by the advance last turn and the shoulders are attacked.   The righthand attack succeeds and a further fort is cleared (HX) but the other stands defiant (NE).

Kalinin Sector – Another bloody exchange in this sector clears a hex of Axis. The Soviets now control 3 adjacent hexes of the Forested crossroads in the northern tip of the salient but as summer has arrived this crossroad no longer holds the key to German supply at Kalinin which can be fed by the road from the Moscow highway.

Third Guards Army breakes through at Narva , June 1943

Moscow Front; Northern Sector; Just north of the city the attack continues widening the breach by a further hex. Once again however the Germans manage to retreat without loss and fall back to a second fortified line behind the fort that is removed.

Central Sector: The right flank of the main southern thrust concentrates and makes two assaults in the NW direction where last turn they tried three. Once again lady luck favours the Axis who retreat away but two more forts succumb, and the river line is crossed.

The approach to Orel is assaulted at the point where a sharp river bend places the defenders east of it. The hex is cleared the defending infantry retreating over the river. A recon Motorcycle regiment probes forward eliminating the fort but on making contact with Totenkopf pulls back to the main line. Forewarned by this intelligence the main body decides not to put their head in the noose and does not advance.

Southern Sector: The secondary assault against the fortified line running from Orel to Voronezh is again assaulted in two places. One defending unit retreats the other is cadred (DH).

Voronezh Front:

A move to encircle the city from the south is started and an assault pushes NW some 30 miles to the SE of last turn’s advancing column which is now stalled outside the city.

South of the city the units take up the positions evacuated by the Axis. They catch a mixed stack of stragglers still east of the river. Two German infantry cadres, a Rumanian AA unit and a Luftwaffe ground regiment are assaulted as they que to cross the river. Caught in the open none survive the onslaught.

Stalingrad Sector: The two reserve Tank Corps are upgraded and move North. Local commanders discuss whether they should press SW over the Don to try and trap the Axis forces in the river bend. They are tempted to open up a diversionary assault towards Rostov arguing that the enemy has no reserves in the area.  However true to their rigid command structure and training thy instead choose to continue to move north to joins the assault on Orel.

Air Combat; The Soviets launch a massive three mission attack against German airfields west of Moscow. Each raid consists of 6 Il2m’s with fighter escorts, The German fighter defence masses against one of these raids to protect an aborted unit on the ground. The unassailable FW109s eliminate two Yaks (a 7B and 9B) while other fighters tear into the Il2ms. The bombing mission unsurprisingly fails. The second unmolested raids has two of the assault bombers Aborted/Returned by flak and the third force with a clear unopposed run at the target from both air and ground fire fails to deliver a hit. Across all raids of the 18 assault bombers employed not a single hit is inflicted!

The Long-Range Bomber Flight now based at Leningrad launches 4 deep raids inflicting 3 hits on the rail network and almost isolating the battlefield in this sector. Luckily for the predominantly German defenders one route from Germany still remains open.

Further north a pair of Yak7Bs out of Helsinki avoid all patrol attacks from the two the Tallin based ME109G squadrons and catch a Ju87D on the ground at Parnu aborting it.

Battle Report

Attacks = 17

Losses;
Soviets =32,
Air=4

Axis:
Forts = 9,
German = 45,
Air = 1,
Eastern Troops = 1
Rumanian = 1,
Hungarian = 5

Narrative

Across the entire front from Narva to the curve of the mighty Don river the quiet before the morning’s dawn is shattered in a cacophony of artillery, rocket fire and tank engines. Troops surge forward to contact the enemy line and ……stop!

Out of 18 attacks (over 3 times as many as recent turn averages) fully 4 are NEs and 8 are DRs. This does not bode well for the Soviets who are comforted only by the fact that much of their mobile elements are held back in cloying mud with some larger artillery mired up to their axles and so the full weight of their force is not yet deployed.

The Axis for their part are comforted that the much vaunted Soviet attack is not a firestorm but a damp squib. True, 7 forts are lost, but while their line has bowed it has not broken and losses have been light, just under half occurring in the established battlegrounds north of Kalinin and at Voronezh.

The same mud which prevented the Axis feeling the full weight of the Soviet might now serves to limit their own response. None of the reserve forces have the mobility to effectively engage the enemy and only one reaches a meaningful defensive position where Group Wiking laagered at Veliki Luki detaches panzer divisions and support units to seal the breach south of Leningrad.

Turn Report

Weather = 6! Against all odds it continues to rain in the North.

Finland and Army of Norway: More small units are drip fed into the Norway defences.

AGN; Reserve and replacement infantry divisions move to reinforce the breaches in the fort line and bolster the shoulders where the Soviets have advanced. The Narva line breach occupied by the cadred remains of the defending infantry xx is reinforced by an engineer regiment and a flak unit. A JU87R completes the defence by surviving Soviet intercepts aided by two squadrons of Me 109Gs.

Retreat in the North and counterattacks

Group Wiking detaches units to enclose the Soviet Army moving south down the rail line from Leningrad but does not reach the lines in time to mount an attack. Meanwhile Group Das Reich to the West moves towards the front line but awaits developments.

Further East the German line faces a thin screen of U3 Soviets and as a target of opportunity again eliminates an enemy infantry stack and decides against advance. The attack is aided by flak Returning a A20B defending air unit.

In the Kalinin area the southern penetration of the line is counter attacked by the powerful units stationed along the line. Here there are sufficient mobile units to counter-attack intrusions and fall back into the line again. The attack is successful and only a single cadre limps back across the line to the Soviets starting position of a fortnight earlier. The northern intrusion however cannot also be attacked and the slow grind west by the Soviets finally persuades the Axis to give up ground. Two hexes in the extreme northern tip are evacuated. This exposes the junction between the Kalinin/Leningrad rail line and the east/west road to Pskov and will bring supply relief to some Soviet units being punished by the current series of German opportunistic attacks in that sector.

The Axis evacuate the area south of Voronezh, a counterattack East of the city fail

AGC: The central reserves move from Vyazma toward the points of main Soviet effort.

The presence of an NKVD unit occupying the Soviet spearhead immediately north of the Moscow lodgement dissuades the Axis from attacking because the risk of an Exchange is too high at the estimated odds.

At the southern end of the Front Group Totenkopf occupies Orel while just to the Southeast. Infantry reserves and units shuffling from the Voronezh sector seal the line against the Soviet forces occupying the former fortified position left by the retreating divisions.

At Voronezh the Soviet drive to the city is attacked but the attack fails to make any headway against the stalwart defenders (4:1 – NE).

AGS: South of the City the mixed Axis force moves to the relative safety of the West bank of the Don most of which is fortified, Engineers and Res Pts are positioned to complete the line by the end of the month. Some units are left East of the river and DAS concentrates to protect these units.

Air Combat: Most units fly DAS missions except in the Moscow sector which has become a no-fly zone for the Luftwaffe due to the concentration of VVS fighters based in the city and nearby airfields. Few of the DAS units are intercepted and where this occurs the results are generally ineffective.

Battle Report

Attacks = 3
Losses: Soviets = 19

Narritive

STAVKA decides it can wait no longer to launch the Summer ’43 Offensive. Almost all formations are in place and Partisan bands and locals are reporting a build-up of enemy defences and have identified at least 4 assembly areas for powerful enemy mobile forces. The meteorologists predict with 100% certainty clear, dry conditions in the south and are 85% confident that the northern rains will cease within the next 2 weeks. With this assurance the Soviets feel they have no choice but to launch the attack……..

The 1st Tula Shock Army commander, Georgy Konstantinovich Zhukov climbs up the steps provided onto the front deck plate of a T-76 main battle tank. For the benefit of the cameramen and news film crews he stands in the centre of a crescent 50 such tanks; machines capable of beating all but the most recent models of the enemy. Batting away the megaphone offered to him by an aide he turns to face the assembled tankers and infantrymen arrayed before him.

His deep heavily accented peasant voice bellows out across the step

“Comrades, the moment we have been waiting for has arrived. Today we take our rightful vengeance against the fascist invader and his lapdogs!”

“We fought them on the borderlands, we fought in the forests and the hills, in the swamps, on the plains and on the landing fields but we did not surrender!”

“Do not deceive yourselves, this will not be easy, and we have many months of hard fighting ahead. This is not the end, that will not occur until we place the Red Flag on the ruins of the Reichstag. This is not the beginning of the end, that will not occur until our tanks cross the borders into the enemy’s heartland. But this is the end of the beginning for comrade Stalin has decreed that we will not take one more step back. Now we take the fight to the oppressor!”

“Obedience to our glorious leader, Stalin, and devotion to the Motherland will secure us the victory we deserve.

So, comrades, start your engines, place one more round into the breach and cry havoc for Stalin and the Motherland!”

Turn Report

Partisan Attacks: Are ramped up to cause chaos in the rear of the enemy and 6 hits are inflicted on communication lines.

Finnish front.  Despite the massive commitments of arms further south the Soviet army finds enough capacity to rail reinforcements and Res Points north to prepare to reduce the Murmansk pocket. To the West the line slowly advances north towards the Norwegian border

The Leningrad Sector

Leningrad Front:  Narva Sector. – The central German Hex, a 7-6 inf XX in swamp is assaulted with a combined arms force of artillery, Guards infantry and armour. The division is cadred and falls back. Due to the mobility limitations of ZOCs, terrain and mud no overrun is possible.

Pskov sector; The German line running north/south is hit in 2 places, a 5-6 is unseated from a fort but retreats in good order, just south of this action a 7-6 inf xx is cadred and the fortified position overrun. The mech forces are still wallowing to the rear in mud and cannot exploit.

Veliki Luki Sector; A 16 mile advance is made down the main rail line south and a brave stack exploits to occupy the vacated fort left by the two retreating 7-6 inf XXs.

Kalinin Sector: The probing/pinning attacks continue north of the city and two parallel 16 mile deep incursions are made into the enemy lines.

Combat North of Kalinin

Moscow Front; Northern Sector; Just north of the city a pinning attack unseats a fortified position and pushes unto the German lines threatening the left flank of the Axis’ last toehold in the metropolis.

Central Sector: The right flank of the main southern thrust moves west and north and conducts a three-hex assault against the riverine defences south of Moscow. While the left flank moves to contact and attacks before the artillery can be properly registered the right has been in contact with the enemy for months so attacks at full force. In the central hex swarms of Stormaviks blacken the skies and fighters clear away any opposition from the Luftwaffe increasing the odds by one column. The central attack is launched first with the right and left flanks following a day behind. The German defences; fortified, behind a river and manned by front line infantry divisions hold firm denying the Soviets their river crossing. Only on the extreme right flank is a fort captured at some cost (HX) widening the breach begun last month.

Southern Sector: The Army Group tasked with the capture of Orel is slowed by the mud and neither the artillery nor armoured units are able to contact the enemy line, moving as they are across the widest area of no man’s land of the entire front. On the southern flank, however, the fortified line is attacked in two places by second line infantry units; it bends but does not buckle only one fort is eliminated with the defenders retreating away in good order.

Soviet attempts to break the Tula sector meet with mixed results

Voronezh Front:

A direct assault towards the city from the North-East along the narrow peninsular between the flanking rivers pushes back the Hungarian defenders and brings the Soviets once more to within view of the city suburbs.

South of the city the drive to the Don is sustained.  The Axis line, weakened by months of attritional warfare, breaks, allowing a one hex exploitation by two tank divisions.

Stalingrad Sector: The two reserve Tank Corps move to Stalingrad for upgrading.

Soviet Attacks Attacks south of Voronezh

Air Combat;

South of Moscow the Luftwaffe makes a rare appearance here to try to deny the Soviets an odds shift against the central defended hex but strong fighters drive them off sufficiently to allow the attack to be enhanced at a cost of one aircraft. Elsewhere a mix of railine bombing missions and some DAS complete the air operations for this turn.

Battle Report

Attacks = 18! (three times the recent turn average)

Losses
Soviets =16, Air=1
Axis: Forts = 7, German = 45, Italian = 2, Eastern Troops = 2
Combat Ratio; May II, Axis/Soviet, 56/64 = 0.88