Month: June 1999 (Page 2 of 3)

NATIONALIST AUG I 1938

Having cleared the Loyalisy Segre bridgehead at Lerida, the Nationalists got down to the hard work of trying to bulldoze their way into the “iron shield” main Catalan defense line that runs practically straight from Reus to the Sant Maurici mountains in the high Pyrenees (13:2927). They opted for a narrow-front attack out of their own bridgehead at the confluence of the Segre and Ebro rivers (13:3030). Both sides provided maximum air support, the Insurgents even diverting all of their bombers except the Savoia-Marchettis from their missions against Valencia. An attempt by Me-109s to intercept the Republicans ended in disaster (K by lowly old I-15), but at least this sacrifice kept the Ratas from interfereing with Insurgent ground support. The attack gained ground as far as Les Borges (13:3029), but, as so often before, the Loyalists managed to avoid any losses.

All other front sectors saw only minor reshuffling of troops.

The Barcelona red-eye continued, but remained ineffective. The diversion of much of the Nationalist bomber force to ground support in Cataluna presented Valencia with a welcome respite from the constant heavy air raids: Only a few SM-79s bombed the dock yards, but without causing significant damage.

LOYALIST AUG I 1938

Not daring to risk a possibly disastrous counterattack, the Loyalists contented themselves with shoring up their front and containing the bulge. Their position is still very strong: One of the two hexes flanking the bulge is a mountain hex, the other is shielded on two hex sides by the Segre river.

While the ground troops played their waiting game, the airforce bestirred itself to launch an attack on the Caspe airbase (13:3332), but with no success—and no losses to anti-aircraft fire either.

COMMENTARY

Another major Insurgent attack that caused no losses! To add insult to injury, Me-109 killed by I-15 (die rolls “12” and “2”), not even to mention the open French border and the lack of results of the air raids on Barcelona and Valencia. And soon the good campaign weather will end!

At least, the “iron line” east of Lerida has been dented (there was a small chance of AS and a minuscule one of AH), and this will stretch the Loyalist front. However, with only this one-hex break in the first line, two more lines to crack to get within 3 hexes of Barcelona, and summer almost over, chances of ending the campaign in 1938 now appear slim.

Only once, about 30 years ago, have I seen a greater streak of enduring luck. That was by a Wehrmacht opponent in an old pbm *Narvik* game, for whom at one time the probability of doing as well as he did dipped below 1 in 100,000 (needless to say, my Norwegians lost). Still a little more than a factor 100 to go to beat that record, Elias!

Well, I shouldn’t complain because this has kept the game going on for so long when both of us expected it to be over in the next few turns.

And another benefit: for lack of options to consider, our pace has picked up tremendously.

The war has been raging for two years. Loyalists control has been reduced to the city of Valencia and a small triangle in Cataluna, about 5 percent of Spain’s territory. Nevertheless, there is stalemate with no end in sight.

INSURGENT JUL II 1938

Finally, Lerida has fallen! The hapless and hopeless defenders were overwhelmed by a concentric attack. However, they fulfilled their mission of buying another two weeks of time for the defense of the Segre position.

Farther north, the Nationalists followed up on the Loyalist retreat and closed to the new defense line. No attacks were launched here.

The main action this time was at the coast. Here, the Insurgents attacked along the coast road with support from the Regia Marina, their own Navy, and fighter bombers. Against stiff resistance the Nationalists reached the halfway point between Tortosa and Reus, but once again the Loyalists managed to retreat without taking losses. Dogfights in the air, where Me-109s and Italian Fiats tried to challenge the massive Loyalist air support, saw some CR-32bs and Ratas go down in flames.

The ring around Valencia was tightened, but no attacks on the city were attempted.

Many of the weaker infantry divisions were pulled out of the line. With so short a frontage, there is no longer any use for them.

A massive raid on Valencia’s port caused minor damage (1 hit) and the Barcelona red-eye (SM-81 night bombers) destroyed some industrial facilities.

LOYALIST JUL II 1938

Sitting pretty, the Loyalists did no more than make a few adjustments to their now exceedingly strong front and to pull three Guardia de Asalto brigades out of the line in preparation for assembly of an elite divsion. Even General Miaja has become more sanguine, has even been reported to smile while looking at the situation maps.

COMMENTARY

The Loyalists’ phenomenal luck still continues: another major attack with close to 50% chance of inflicting losses failed to do so, and Insurgent bombing results again well below statistical expectation, French border remained open, guerrilleros succeeded, no one in Valencia surrendered. Yes, Lerida has fallen, but to a 7:1 attack with result guaranteed, and the loss of the coastal hex near Tortosa will not have serious consequences.

Our game is turning stale. The Loyalists in Cataluna now hold a front with only 3 non-mountain hexes, all entrenched, none attackable from more than 2 adjacent hexes of which one or both are cross-river. With 20 to 23CF per hex, the strongest possible Insurgent attacks can achieve 3:1 odds only with lucky percentile rolls. Against the four mountain hexes of the front the odds are even worse. Two back-up lines with only slightly lesser natural obstacles are by now largely fortified or entrenched. There is no room for maneuver, no opportunity for finesse. All the Insurgents can do is keep attacking despite poor odds and hope the occasional HX or EX results will cause more casualties than the Loyalists can replace, and so wear them down eventually. With almost 200 Inf and about 20 Art replacement points accrued, the Insurgents need not fear even AH results and so can risk poor odds. The Loyalists have no choices either: Attacks are out of question as they would consume precious supplies and possibly entail losses. Moreover, an advance upon success of an attack would only be into a more exposed position and invite losses. Even to follow up on Insurgent AH or AR results, the Loyalists would have to stick their neck out, possibly into a noose.

Thanks to their unbelievable luck in avoiding losses to this point, the Loyalists now have enough reserves to make up for the losses in the first three exchange results, reinforcements and replacement will be coming in at a slow but steady pace, and and the end of good weather approaches and will make Insurgent attacks impossible. How the game will go on now depends exclusively on the Insurgent die rolls in their major attacks.

What a shame that this memorable match has to degenerate into a mindless die-rolling contest as it approaches its end. This is not necessarily a critique of the design, however. With less lopsided die rolls than we have seen, the Loyalists are quite unlikely to have much strength left if they ever are reduced to this last patch of Catalan territory. Yet, our experience seems to reveal a viable and practically unbeatable Loyalist strategy to stave off capitulation when things go awry, and so avoid a substantial or decisive Insurgent victory: fortify this line in Cataluna with improved forts, stack ample ASPs at Barcelona (for conversion to GSPs when the French border is closed), see to it that the strongest units retain a path of retreat into the stronghold, and just let the rest of Spain go to hell in a handbasket as slowly as possible.

Last time I commented on some strange facets of the port rules as interpreted by our guru. Meanwhile John Astell was so kind to send me explanations. The guru rulings indeed correspond to what John intended, but in any future game that will have natural harbor(s) and the “functioning” concept, there will be a special rule for the latter.